ABSTRACT
COVID-19 became a global health emergency because it threatened the collapse of health systems as demand for health goods and services and their relative prices surged. Governments responded with lockdowns and transfers. Empirical evidence shows that lockdowns and healthcare saturation contribute to explain the cross-country variation in GDP drops even after controlling for COVID-19 cases and mortality. We explain this output–pandemia trade-off as resulting from a shock to subsistence health demand that increases with capital utilization and economic activity in a model with entrepreneurs and workers. The health system saturates as the gap between supply and subsistence narrows, which worsens consumption and income inequality. An externality distorts utilization, because firms do not internalize that lower utilization reduces healthcare saturation. Lockdowns and transfers to workers are the optimal policy response. Quantitatively, strict lockdowns and large transfers yield sizable welfare gains because they neutralize the utilization externality and prevent a sharp rise in inequality. Welfare and output costs vary in response to small parameter changes or deviations from optimal policies. Weak lockdowns coupled with weak transfers programs are the worst alternative and yet are in line with what several emerging and least developed countries implemented.
ABSTRACT
PurposeThis study aims to examine the existence of herding and the impact of economic and political factors in the Shariah-compliant stocks of Gulf Cooperation Council markets, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. This study also seeks to explore the existence of herding under market stress and cross-stocks herding between Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks. Design/methodology/approachThe data period is from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2021. Panel data regression and panel quantile regression are used to examine herding. FindingsThe results show that herding tends to exist in Shariah stocks before the pandemic but is more pronounced in both types of stocks during the pandemic. The empirical evidence shows that economic factors are significant to herding before and during pandemic, whereas the political factors are only shown to be significant before COVID-19. Conventional stocks are correlated to the herding of Shariah stocks but the Shariah stocks have no significant impact on the herding of conventional stocks. Panel quantile regression shows that herding exists in extreme conditions but not all markets perform similarly. Originality/valueThe results of this study imply that the political factor can lead investors to herd. This political factor represents information that is used by investors to herd, consistent with the prediction of information-based theory of herding. Hence, policymakers and regulators need to be wary of any change in the political factors as they may cause movement in stock prices that deviate from fundamental value because of investor herding.
ABSTRACT
Is fiscal federalism associated with economic policy responses and stimulus measures adopted by national and sub-national governments to mitigate the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic? In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that it indeed is. Our results indicate that even after controlling for various relevant factors, countries with fiscally federal (decentralised) governments have adopted larger fiscal and macro-financial policy packages (as a percent of GDP). However, there are no significant differences in monetary-policy responses between centralised and decentralised governments. We also show that these results are robust to using different federalism measures, including different sets of control variables and different econometric specifications that include an instrumental variable estimation.
ABSTRACT
Purpose This paper aims to explore empirically the interactions between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, economic mobility and containment policy to test the effectiveness of mobility restrictions in controlling the spread of the disease. Design/methodology/approach This study used weekly regional data for the 17 Philippine regions and estimated the effect of shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model. Findings The authors conclude that COVID-19 deaths and incidence primarily respond to shocks that affect the lethality and transmissibility of the disease, and mobility restrictions and strict quarantine levels do not seem to have any impact on these outcomes. The movement of people during this pandemic period, on the other hand, seems to respond more to economic factors and government restrictions and less to the presence of and the characteristics of the disease. Originality/value Since the pandemic is a public bad, community cooperation is a must to address it. Clear government messaging that dispels doubts on the safety of the newly developed vaccines and that encourages public acceptance and trust might be a better nudge compared to a heavy-handed and threatening approach.
ABSTRACT
How important is the relaxation of contact restrictions for the recovery of the German economy and what conclusions can be drawn for the appropriate level of contact restrictions in the coming months? In considering these issues, an attempt will be made to assess what significance the contact restriction measures introduced by the federal and state governments since mid-March 2020 will actually have for the current slump in economic activity in Germany. In addition, the various plausible scenarios for the spread and containment of infection are presented with different options for easing contact restrictions.
ABSTRACT
The explosion of Covid-19 cases is looming in Germany. The German Society for Epidemiology has warned that the number of cases could soon overshoot the capacity of the healthcare system. This may be true even if Germany follows the 'flatten-the-curve'- approach to reduce infection rates. A suppression of the virus remains the best solution for the crisis. Supply will suffer as long the virus persists. Until then, demand side measures will not cure the epidemic. Coordinated measures for business that ensure compliance and European debt instruments may be part of a strategy to solve the crisis.